2025 elections in Honduras: democratic risk in the face of a divided opposition

The general elections in Honduras, scheduled for November 30, 2025, are taking place against a backdrop of political tension and institutional questioning. The electoral outlook is marked by the control of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) over state institutions and an opposition that faces difficulties in consolidating a unified alternative. Signs of democratic weakening and friction between key institutions, such as the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, raise concerns about the transparency and legitimacy of the process.

The political landscape in Honduras is marked by a split opposition, as the National Party and the Liberal Party engage in discussions to create a joint effort. Nonetheless, internal conflicts and disagreements over leadership roles and agendas have made it challenging to establish a robust partnership. The recent primary elections exhibited logistical issues and saw low participation, which heightened concerns about the voting system and led to increased criticism of how institutions are managed.

Management of institutions and strains during elections

The Nodos report observes that the democratic system in Honduras is under strain, with the dominant party holding onto power by way of institutional dominance. This scenario has led to potential outcomes such as the persistence of the established framework, a halt in institutional operations, or potentially a constitutional collapse. Frictions between the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the military, who manage election logistics, have sparked worries regarding the fairness and effectiveness of the proceedings. Moreover, the absence of electoral changes and continuing political divisions heighten the threat of disputes after elections.

Different sectors of civil society and the global community have urged the authorities to ensure an open and inclusive voting process, adhering to democratic principles to maintain the country’s political and social stability. The mix of a governing party with institutional power, a fragmented opposition, and a disputed electoral system suggests the potential for an extraordinary institutional crisis in Honduras.

Potential alliances of the opposition and the reactions from those in power

In reaction to the current circumstances, the Liberal and National parties have commenced structured discussions to assess the potential for an opposition alliance, aiming to contest against the LIBRE Party in the forthcoming elections. These discussions have looked into strategies for electoral collaboration, the allocation of candidacies, and a shared platform emphasizing the protection of democracy, a market-oriented economy, and adherence to the constitutional framework. The opposition parties highlight that the administration of Xiomara Castro and her advisor Manuel Zelaya have introduced initiatives targeting the consolidation of power, including the use of the Public Ministry to take measures against adversaries, attempts to govern the CNE, and propositions for constitutional amendments.

If an alliance is established, the two longstanding parties might collectively represent over half of the voters, based on the latest surveys. The union is seen by both social and economic sectors as a plausible option to curb the governing party’s advancements. Meanwhile, the ruling party has minimized the significance of a potential opposition coalition, asserting that it fails to present solutions for the nation. The electoral process in 2025 appears to be shaping up as a choice between continuing the foundational project championed by LIBRE and reverting to a republican, pro-investment approach supported by a united opposition. The results will determine Honduras’s political and institutional path.