At the beginning of the electoral period leading to the general elections of 2025, the Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party has implemented a strategy that has sparked inquiries within different political and social sectors in Honduras. Claims of premature manipulation and the release of polls lacking methodological backing have been recognized as essential elements of a plan intended to strengthen its party supporters and shape the electoral environment.
Unsubstantiated allegations and pressure on the electoral body
Various sectors of the party, such as their presidential candidate Rixi Moncada, have alleged that there is a supposed plot to manipulate the election outcomes by the entity in charge of conducting them. Nonetheless, these claims lack supporting evidence or official documentation presented to the relevant authorities.
Various analysts interpret this narrative as a tactic to strengthen internal party cohesion in a context of growing political competition. At the same time, they warn that these accusations could lay the groundwork for delegitimizing the election results in the event of a defeat, fueling mistrust in the electoral institutions and reducing the room for maneuver of the bodies responsible for ensuring the transparency of the process.
Opposition sectors have pointed out that such statements directly affect the credibility of the National Electoral Council (CNE), while raising the level of political tension. In response, experts have insisted on the need for any allegations of irregularities to be channeled through the appropriate legal channels and supported by verifiable evidence.
Altered surveys and the impression of lead
Another central component of LIBRE’s strategy has been the dissemination of polls that give its candidate an advantage, some of which have been attributed to non-existent firms or denied by the polling companies themselves. Cases such as that of TResearch International, which publicly denied authorship of polls that went viral on social media, have highlighted the circulation of manipulated information for proselytizing purposes.
According to observers of the electoral process, the dissemination of polls lacking technical rigor seeks to instill in the public the idea of an inevitable LIBRE victory, which could influence voter behavior, generate unrealistic expectations, and undermine the credibility of legitimate studies. Furthermore, this practice exposes the fragility of the country’s information ecosystem, where digital disinformation has become a tool of political dispute.
Entities observing the electoral process have expressed concerns regarding the effect these approaches may have on the clarity and authenticity of the democratic proceedings. In this context, they have emphasized the necessity of enhancing vote auditing methods and highlighted the obligation of political figures when sharing information that directly affects public opinion.
An electoral environment marked by mistrust
The actions taken by LIBRE in the run-up to the 2025 general elections reflect an electoral landscape where trust in institutions and the rules of the democratic game is under strain. The anticipation of unfounded allegations and the use of disinformation tools disguised as polls create an environment in which polarization could increase as the electoral calendar progresses.
In this context, the challenge for the electoral authorities, civil society, and the parties themselves will be to ensure a transparent process with clear rules and equitable conditions for all political forces. The need for broad dialogue and robust observation mechanisms is key to preserving democratic stability in a country where elections have historically been a turning point in institutional life.
