Rixi Moncada’s decline in voting intentions worries the ruling party

The latest voting intention polls show an unexpected turn in the Honduran presidential race. The ruling party’s candidate, Rixi Moncada, has suffered a sustained decline in opinion polls, posing new challenges for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) in its bid to remain in power in the general elections scheduled for November 30.

Sustained decline in electoral preferences

Information published by opinion firms like Paradigma and Pro-Encuestas, along with national press sources like HCH, indicates a significant drop in backing for the candidate representing the governing party. As reported by the Paradigma analysis, carried out from May 4 to 17, Moncada received just 11.3% of votes, lagging behind Salvador Nasralla from the Liberal Party at 25.6%, and Nasry Asfura from the National Party at 21.2%. In this survey, 13.9% of participants mentioned they had not made up their minds yet.

At the same time, the Pro-Encuestas poll from June 5 to 7 indicates a small increase for Moncada, reaching 28.5%, yet still trailing Asfura at 36.3% and Nasralla at 34.2%. In contrast, on June 12, HCH reported that the voting intention for Moncada stood at about 16%, whereas Asfura had 45%, with Nasralla’s numbers falling between 25% and 35%.

This decline contrasts with March figures, when the TResearch poll placed Moncada with a voting intention of around 44.9%. The difference marks a sharp decline in less than three months, in a political context marked by high competition and growing fragmentation of the electorate.

Alteration of the political landscape

The shift in voting tendencies indicates not just a decline in the ruling party candidate’s support, but also a rise in strength among the opposition figures. Nasralla and Asfura consistently rank higher than Moncada in all the latest surveys, suggesting a reshaping of the political scene before November.

In this situation, the quantity of indecisive voters remains a crucial element. While a few recent surveys do not include this group, data from May reveals that nearly one out of every seven voters is still uncertain about their position. This instability in public sentiment allows for shifts in the present trend, contingent on the success of the campaigns during the final phase.

Reactions and strategies of the ruling party

In light of these findings, the LIBRE party has started to re-evaluate its stance. Representatives of the party blame the drop in the survey results on what they see as “misinformation efforts” driven by opposing factions. Nevertheless, the leadership acknowledges the necessity to promptly implement strategic changes, including modifications in political messaging, the campaign staff, and their communication approach with voters.

Half a year ahead of the elections, the ruling party faces the challenge of not only closing the gap with its opponents but also reconstructing a firmer support base amid increasing competition. As the election days approach, their options become more limited, and the next few weeks will be critical in deciding if Moncada’s campaign can regain its footing or if the existing trend solidifies.

A situation full of underlying conflicts

The Honduran electoral landscape is heading toward a closer contest than expected at the beginning of the year. The loss of support for the ruling party’s candidate, the rise of opposition forces, and the weight of undecided voters raise questions about the political system’s ability to channel the growing electoral momentum.

The progress of the campaigns, the official reaction to potential conflicts, and public involvement will be crucial elements in a process that is emerging as an important assessment for the nation’s democratic steadiness.