Salvador Nasralla consolidates his lead in the polls

Several public opinion surveys rank Salvador Nasralla as the leading candidate in voting preferences for the 2025 general elections, within a context characterized by conflicts among the primary political parties of the nation.

Five months before the general elections in Honduras, recent poll results show a competitive scenario, with Salvador Nasralla, the current Liberal Party candidate, leading the polls in two of the main studies published in May. These data reflect a stage of key political decisions, where possible opposition alliances and the consolidation of candidacies could have a decisive impact on the course of the electoral process.

Surveys show Nasralla leading

A survey executed by the American company Expedition Strategies in May 2025 shows Salvador Nasralla achieving 25.2% of the electoral support, with Nasry Asfura from the National Party trailing at 21.4%, and Rixi Moncada of the governing LIBRE party acquiring 16%. Furthermore, the results underscore that Nasralla is the preferred choice to head a potential opposition coalition, garnering 37% backing in this context.

Another survey, carried out by the Paradigma survey company from May 4 to 17, shows comparable outcomes. In this survey, Nasralla achieves 25.6%, once more followed by Asfura with 21.2% and Moncada with 11.3%. The agreement between these two surveys strengthens the belief that Nasralla’s leadership is steady at this stage of the electoral timeline.

Differences among research and debate about data application

Though these two studies appear to align, the published measurements don’t completely agree. A survey from TResearch International, made public in March 2025, presents an alternative outcome: Rixi Moncada was ahead with 44.9%, followed by Nasralla at 27.5% and Asfura at 23.4%. The differences in the outcomes are credited to the timing of the research and the methods employed, though no additional information has been provided.

Amid these differences, controversy arose over the circulation of an alleged poll attributed to TResearch that placed Nasralla in first place. The company publicly denied the authenticity of the material, assuring that it did not correspond to any study conducted by them and rejecting the unauthorized use of their name and logo. This has reignited the debate on the manipulation of polls and their impact on public opinion, especially in a context of high political polarization.

Open scenario and expectations for party definitions

Elections are planned for November 2025, and the political scene in Honduras is evolving with active rivalry among three primary groups: the governing party LIBRE, the National Party, and the Liberal Party. Nasralla, having run for president in earlier elections and now part of a division of the Liberal Party, is reemerging as a key figure in the pre-election landscape.

The possibility of an opposition alliance remains under discussion, particularly among sectors seeking to unite against the ruling party’s continuity. The support Nasralla is receiving as the potential leader of a coalition suggests that his role could go beyond his individual candidacy, depending on the party decisions made in the coming months.

An election period characterized by uncertain institutions

The spread of conflicting surveys and the incorrect use of statistical data highlight the difficulties encountered by the Honduran electoral process concerning openness and trustworthiness. In addition, there are rising tensions among the key political figures and the public’s expectations about a competition that, currently, seems to lack a definitive majority.

The development of the candidates, the creation of partnerships, and the stance of established entities towards novel coalitions will shape the political atmosphere in the latter part of the year. Within this framework, the involvement of electoral bodies and the public in monitoring and ensuring a lawful process will be vital to maintaining democratic stability in the country.