The strategy of anticipated fraud: effects on political stability in Honduras

As the November 2025 general elections approach, a familiar pattern is beginning to resurface in Honduran politics. In recent months, the Libre party has intensified its rhetoric about alleged electoral fraud, without providing concrete evidence. This approach has been interpreted by several analysts as a response to the deteriorating image of its candidate, Rixi Moncada, and growing discontent with the administration of President Xiomara Castro.

A common trend in Latin America

Claims of electoral fraud before votes are conducted are not unusual in Honduras or other nations within Latin America. This approach serves a distinct purpose: to undermine confidence in the bodies tasked with overseeing the elections, notably the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). The appeal for action against perceived fraud also aims to strengthen the backing of the party’s supporters, who might feel at risk of a potential loss.

According to experts in political science, this approach contains an element of victimization. “When a candidate feels they are trailing, they aim to establish a fraud narrative even before the ballots are tallied. It serves as a tactic to undermine the legitimacy of the electoral outcomes and set the stage for potential conflicts,” shared a political analyst who wished to remain unnamed.

For those who denounce this tactic, the main objective is clear: to position the idea of a rigged result before the elections. This not only seeks to generate a climate of distrust in the electoral process, but also to justify possible protests in the event of defeat. “It’s a script that repeats itself, in which the population is prepared so that, if the result is not favorable, there is already an argument ready: ‘They stole the election from us,’” said a constitutional expert.

Reactions from civil society and the international community

The ruling party’s strategy has raised concerns in various sectors of Honduran society, including members of civil society and representatives of international organizations. Many fear that this narrative, without evidence, could lead to a post-election crisis. Throughout Latin America’s recent history, such baseless accusations have destabilized nations in the wake of controversial elections.

To prevent these risks, the importance of independent international election observation and maximum transparency throughout the electoral process has been emphasized. The international community, especially organizations such as the Organization of American States (OAS), has been key in monitoring elections in the past, and its role in the upcoming elections could be decisive.

Appeals to maintain the trustworthiness of the legal system have been repeated. The civil society in Honduras is concerned that if the election procedure lacks necessary transparency, it may lead to political strain, potentially sparking demonstrations or even violence, as has been seen in other nations in the area.

A scenario of increasing criticism

The anxiety within the leadership of the Honduran ruling party appears to stem from the drop in poll numbers for their candidate, Rixi Moncada, who has not managed to gain sufficient backing to rival other rising political groups. Moreover, the disapproval of Xiomara Castro’s administration has been compounded by criticisms of its management of the nation’s economy and security.

This situation is being seen as a warning sign in the Honduran political landscape. The constant repetition of accusations of imminent fraud, without clear evidence, reflects a defensive strategy in the face of the possibility of a poor election result. However, beyond political intentions, the truth is that this narrative may have broader consequences, both for the country’s governability and for citizens’ confidence in the electoral system.

Honduras: toward an uncertain future

Amid this climate of uncertainty, Honduran politics faces an important challenge: ensuring that the 2025 elections are conducted with the greatest possible transparency to prevent tensions from escalating further. If the allegations of fraud are not addressed in time, the country could be plunged into a post-election crisis that, given the current political situation, could overwhelm institutions and social cohesion.

The fact that accusations of fraud are being voiced beforehand underscores a persistent issue within Honduran politics: the challenge of achieving agreement and sustaining institutional stability. Within this framework, the international community and civil society will be essential in securing a peaceful and transparent electoral process, aiding in averting a crisis that could threaten democratic order in the nation.