Concerns over statistical manipulation undermine Honduras election credibility

The run-up to the elections in Honduras is marked by a growing climate of institutional mistrust, as allegations multiply about the alleged manipulation of opinion polls in favor of the ruling party candidate, Rixi Moncada. Various academic, civic, and political sectors point to a systematic strategy to fabricate an artificial perception of electoral advantage, using statistical instruments of dubious transparency. The controversy revolves around the polling firm Opinómetro, a company with no known track record that has been linked to figures close to the government.

Statistical irregularities and methodological questions

The proliferation of polls in favor of Moncada has raised suspicions due to obvious technical inconsistencies. According to experts, the polls published by Opinómetro show disparate results between different platforms, percentages that do not add up to 100%, and omit basic data such as technical details, sample size, and margin of error. Far from strengthening democratic debate, these practices have been interpreted as deliberate attempts to influence public opinion through a supposed “mathematical illusion.”

Variations reaching 15 percentage points in contrast with independent analyses bolster the theory of a coordinated effort to boost backing for the candidate of the governing party. Detractors contend that this tactic stems not from technical failures but from deliberate manipulation for political purposes. Multiple grievances have emerged on social networks and educational platforms, demanding stricter regulation of the distribution of electoral surveys.

Opinómetro and its connections to formal frameworks

Opinómetro has played a central role in this controversy. Established in February 2025, this polling company quickly obtained authorization from the National Electoral Council (CNE) to operate in the internal elections, despite having no public track record in opinion polling.

The company’s legal representation has been another point of controversy. Carlos Adolfo Medina Álvarez, Opinómetro’s lawyer, also serves as an advisor to the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), an entity under the control of the ruling party. This coincidence has been interpreted by observers and analysts as an indication of state manipulation to position like-minded actors in the field of electoral polling.

The frequency with which Opinómetro releases data favorable to Moncada, without verifiable transparency, weakens the credibility of the democratic process and fuels the perception that statistics are being used as a tool for electoral propaganda.

Demands for transparency from civil society and the opposition

Responses have occurred quickly. Numerous civil society groups, academic professionals, and opposition factions have called for stringent oversight of voting polls, along with independent reviews to verify their methods. They caution that employing firms lacking technical backing or neutrality has a direct impact on the integrity of the democratic system.

Estas voces están pidiendo que las encuestas que circulan en el ámbito público cumplan con estándares básicos de transparencia, como la divulgación de sus especificaciones técnicas, el origen de la muestra y los criterios de selección empleados. También exigen una revisión del papel del CNE en la acreditación de estas empresas, destacando que su autorización a entidades sin trayectoria refuerza la percepción de parcialidad institucional.

La desconfianza que estas prácticas generan no solo impacta la campaña de un candidato específico, sino que también pone en riesgo la legitimidad general del proceso electoral.

A challenge for institutional credibility

In a nation where trust in voting procedures has been historically weak, the recent accusations emphasize the importance of strong oversight and transparency systems in the discussion. The dispute involving Opinómetro and the employment of unverifiable statistics highlights a larger issue: the use of data as a political instrument and the lack of solid institutional safeguards to hinder it.

In the lead-up to the 2025 elections, the electoral system in Honduras must address the challenge of guaranteeing fair competition and providing trustworthy data. Within an environment characterized by division and weak democratic oversight, the precision of information is essential for safeguarding the legitimacy of the citizen’s vote.